基于Bayes理论的固有可用度定时截尾试验方案

为解决小子样条件下进行产品固有可用度试验验证的问题,基于Bayes理论,提出了一种固有可用度定时截尾试验方案．该试验方案在假设故障间隔时间和修复时间均服从指数分布的前提下,将现场试验分为同时进行的可靠性和维修性定时截尾试验2个部分,要求在利用验前试验信息的基础上,使本次试验获得的验后分布还可以作为下一次现场试验的验前分布,提高了试验数据的利用率,具有较好的经济效益．     

Countering the effects of IED systems in Afghanistan: an integral approach

The current approach to countering the threat of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan has met with limited success. The relative lack of success may be in part because the current approach is not holistic and discounts the social systems that foster the IEDs. Insurgents are using IEDs as a tool to further their strategic aims, but the coalition and to a lesser extent the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) are attacking the IEDs as if they are an end in and of themselves. Combining network disruption with information change maximizes the opportunities for mitigating the IED threat. More specifically, to mitigate the IED threat requires disrupting the social and economic systems associated with IEDs, and at the same time providing alternative economic opportunities and improving rule of law and governance at the local level. In other words, counter-IED (C-IED) must be Counter-Insurgency (COIN) centric to be successful. This paper reviews the current state of C-IED efforts, identifies five main problems with the current approach, and suggests changes to reduce or mitigate the IED threat in Afghanistan.     

建构主义视角下强化大学生信仰教育的对策探析

建构主义学习理论在强化大学生信仰教育方面有着重要的指导作用。夺文简要分析了夫掌生信仰教育存在的问题,探讨了建构主义学习理论对于强化大学生信仰教育的重要意义,并以建构主义卷习理论隽指导,从“以学生为中心”、“情景创设”、“协作学习”、“利用各种资源”四个方面提出了强化对策,以期提高大学生信仰教育水平,实现大学思想政治教育的功能。     

Market entry strategy in the presence of market spillovers and efficiency differentiation

Firms form various alliances or use brand extensions to enter new markets in order to improve their operational efficiency and create a positive spillover. However, they do not always know the implications of these strategies for market entry and multimarket competition because the sale of products in one market can have negative spillover effects on product sales in other markets. We present an analytical framework to examine whether and how (i.e., by choosing alliance entry or independent entry) competing firms should enter a market in a situation where market spillovers occur when a firm enters a spillover-producing market to sell products that may increase or decrease the consumers' willingness to pay for products in the primary market. Our analysis shows that the operational efficiency (or quality differentiation ability) of firms in a spillover-producing market varies, and hence, the impact of market spillovers differs for firms. We identify the key factors, such as bargaining power, brand value difference in the primary market, and the extent of efficiencies and spillovers, that determine the firms benefitting from the different entry strategies. Specifically, we show that firms would be more willing to choose an alliance strategy to enter a spillover-producing market if the negative spillover is small and alliance efficiency is high. In contrast, if an alliance entry is not favored, the firms' relative operational efficiency is crucial for them to decide whether to enter the market independently under moderate spillover conditions. Finally, we show the implications of market entry strategies for managers.     

Modified couple stress and thickness-stretching included formulation of a sandwich micro shell subjected to electro-magnetic load resting on elastic foundation

This paper studies electromagnetoelastic static investigation of a sandwich doubly curved microshell subjected to multi-field loading based on a new thickness stretching included refined higher order shear/normal deformable model. Modified-couple-stress-theory (MCST) is used for accounting small-scale-dependency. The numerical results are derived using an analytical method. The effect of small scale parameter in micro scale, initial electric and magnetic potentials and foundation parameters is studied on the electromagnetoelastic bending results. It is confirmed an enhancing in stiffness of small scale shell with an increase in micro length scale parameter.     

弹道修正弹射程偏差预测与阻力板展开时机优化

根据弹道修正弹阻力板的展开控制对于射程偏差预测要求的实时性,提出基于摄动原理的射程偏差预测算法.为解决阻力板修正能力在线计算数据量大的问题,提出在弹载计算机上装定阻力板修正能力表格的方法,给出发射前计算修正能力表格的过程和飞行中使用修正能力表格的步骤,提出阻力板展开时机的优化判断条件,并采用该方法对某型弹道修正火箭弹射程修正控制进行仿真试验和飞行试验.仿真试验结果表明,当目标射程为33 565.4m时,经修正后火箭弹的射程偏差能控制在20m以内;飞行试验结果表明,弹道修正火箭弹的射程偏差实测为24m,射程精度得到明显提高.     

基于排队论的协同防空作战效能分析

舰艇编队协同防空作战是未来海战的重要形式,运用排队论对舰艇编队协同防空的作战效能进行了研究。以排队理论为基础建立了舰艇编队协同防空的排队模型,运用理论分析得到了以整个编队毁伤目标概率为指标的防空效能。通过对防空效能的计算与仿真,分析了几个重要参数对防空效能的影响,为多层舰艇防空系统的设计与运用提供了理论支持。     

Theoretical study of an energetic material di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives

Computations by density functional theory (DFT) method are performed on a series of di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives with different substituents and linkages. The heat of formation (HOF) is predicted by the designed isodesmic reactions. The predicted results reveal that –N₃ and –NN– groups are effective structural units for increasing the HOF values of the di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives. The HOMO–LUMO gap is affected by the substituents and linkage groups. Detonation performance is evaluated using the Kamlet–Jacobs approach based on the calculated density and HOF. The results indicate that –NO₂, –NF₂, –NH–, –NH–NH– and –NN– groups are helpful for enhancing the detonation properties of di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives. The bond dissociation energy and bond order of the weakest bonds are analyzed to investigate their stability. It is observed that the –CH₂–, –CH₂–CH₂– and –CHCH– groups are effective structural units for improving the stabilities of these derivatives. Considering the detonation performance and the stability, five compounds are screened as the potential candidates for high energy density materials.